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Researches
CAICT Insight on ICT-2018  


【Published by】 Posts & Telecom Press
【Compiled by】 China Academy of Information and Communications Technology
【Published in】 April 2018

Abstract
Currently, integrated innovation of ICTs is unprecedentedly active, which historically converges with the strategic requirement of high-quality economic development in the new era. CAICT has made rich achievements in research on major strategies such as strong cyber power, 5G, industrial Internet, artificial intelligence and sharing economy. The CAICT Insight on ICT is one of the major research achievements of CAICT and has been issued for ten consecutive years, winning great attention and wide recognition of the industry and having its brand value continuously improved. The report collects research achievements in the above-mentioned eight sectors and analyzes the current development status, hotspot issues and trend of each sector in 2017. Hopefully, it can be taken by all sectors of the society for reference. Advices and correction by readers are appreciated if any mistake.

Contents

ICT Services
Ⅰ Review on Development of ICT services in 2017
ⅰ Analysis on Overall Situation of ICT Services in 2017
1.Chinese ICT Services Develop Vigorously in 2017
2.China Rises 3 Notches in IDI Ranking in 2017
ⅱ Analysis on Overall Situation of Basic Telecommunications in 2017
1.Basic Telecommunications Accelerate to Rebound, Mobile Data Business Plays a Strong Driving Role
2.Mobile Internet Traffic Continues to Grow Rapidly, Traffic Operation Develops to a New Stage
3.Share of Fiber Optic Users Leads the World, Layout Arrangement for Building of International Information Channels Speeds Up
ⅲ Analysis on Overall Situation of Internet Services in 2017
1.Internet Revenue Maintains Rapid Growth, Its Influence on National Economy is Continuously Enhanced
2.Internet Business Structure Concentrates towards E-commerce, Business Innovation Leads the World
3.Internet Market Shows the Pattern of “Two Super Powers and Multiple Great Powers”, Start-ups Continue to Grow
ⅳ Analysis on Overall Situation of IT Application Services in 2017
1.IT Application Services Develop Rapidly, IT Services Continue to Expand in Scale
2.Enterprise-oriented IT Application Shows the Trend of Cloudification and Triggers Ecological Reengineering of the Industry
3.Government-oriented IT Application Services are Deepened, the Supporting Role is Noticeably Augmented
Ⅱ Analysis on Hotspot Issues on ICT Services in 2017
ⅰ Digital Economy Facilitates Transformation of Real Economy
1.The Party Central Committee Accelerates to Deploy Digital Economy to Promote Development of Real Economy
2.Chinese Digital Economy Rapidly Grows in Size, China Becomes the World’s Second Largest Information Economy
3.Mobile Payment Triggers Revolution in the Financial Industry, E-commerce Innovates in New Retail Format
4.Sharing Economy Penetrates into Broad Sectors and Restructures New Business Modes in the Future
ⅱ Operators Deepen Digital Transformation
1.Convergence Business is Diversified and Explores New Space for Industrial Development
2.Cloud-Network Integration is Taken as Target, Intelligent Network Transformation Speeds up
3.NB-IoT Development is Launched to Actively Construct the Industrial Ecology
4.Implementation of the Mixed Ownership Reform Drives Industrial Supply-Side Transformation and Stimulates Innovation Vigor of the Industry
ⅲ China Chases after the US in Internet Development
1.Size of Internet Enterprises Expedites Expansion, Gap between China and the US Continues to Widen
2.Technological Innovation in Internet Constantly Makes Breakthrough, China Gradually Narrows the Gap with the US
3.Value Difference between Internet Investment and Financing is Narrowed, Share of Early-Stage Investment Cases in China Climbs
4. China Has Edge in Size of Consumer Groups, Younger Netizens Promote Innovation
5.Chinese Internet Magnates Develop Super App and Construct the Application Eco-system
ⅳ Smart Society Shows First Glimmer
1.Building a Smart Society Becomes the Development Objective and Important Practice of Countries around the World
2.Intelligence Technology Drives Social Formation to Evolve towards Smart Society in an Expedited Way
3.Structure of Smart Society Shows the Trend of Networking and Socialization
4.Governance of Smart Society Speeds up to Show the Pattern of Diversified and Collaborated Development
5.Services in Smart Society Overcome the Dilemma of Imbalance and Display the Inclusive and Balanced Trend
6.Building of New-type Smart Cities Becomes the Important Carrier for Building a Smart Society in China
Ⅲ Outlook into Trend of ICT Services in 2018
ⅰ National Strategies and Enterprise Transformation Promote Development of ICT Services
ⅱ Chinese ICT Services Maintain Rapid Growth in 2018
ⅲ Development of Telecommunication Infrastructure is Geared up and Continues to Consolidate the Foundation of a Strong Cyber Power
ⅳ First Year of NB-IoT Scale Operation is Coming, IoT Terminal Users Start to Grow Explosively
ⅴ Internet Services Continue to Expand in Size and will Usher in a New Round of Companies Getting Listed in 2018
ⅵ Integration in Technology, Business and Data and Cross-level, region, system, department and business management of IT Application are Deepened, Big Data Centers and Smart City Groups Become a Popular Direction
Internet
Ⅰ Review on Internet Development in 2017
ⅰ Global Internet Brews up New Breakthrough, China Becomes One of the Major Players
ⅱ Chinese Internet Enterprises Accelerate Globalization and Realize Global Layout
ⅲ Internet Deepens Integration with Real Economy in China and Looks for New Drivers
ⅳ Development of Mobile Internet Slows Down, User Dependence and Profitability Facilitate Sustained Industrial Development
ⅴ Internet Investment Picks up, Chinese Enterprises Greet the New Wave of IPO
ⅵ Size of Public Cloud Increases Rapidly, Application of Big Data Speeds up to be Implemented
ⅶ Cloud Computing Drives Development of Big Data, Industrial Application is Constantly Deepened
ⅷ Internet+ Finance Exerts Greater Influence and Gradually Steps into the Age of Inclusive Intelligence
ⅸ Internet+ Government Services are Widely Applied to Support Inclusive Development of Public Services
ⅹ Policies are Issued Intensively, Innovative Development and Enhanced Regulation and Standardization are Promoted Simultaneously
Xi The World Explores Governance Rules in Depth, China Promotes Construction of a Community of Shared Future in Cyberspace to Take a Solid Step
Ⅱ Analysis on Internet Hotspot Issues in 2018
ⅰ Hotspot Issue No.1 --- AI: Application Realizes Breakthrough, the Ecology Takes Initial Shape
1.Technology Starts to be Applied, Attention is Attracted due to its Influence
2.General Algorithms Continue to be Improved, Industrial Algorithms are Gradually Deepened
3. AI Facilitates Industrial Development, Major Sectors such as Medical Care Realize Breakthrough
4.Chinese and US Government Actively Deploy Layout, Strategies and Directions Focus on Different Sectors
ⅱ Hotspot Issue No.2 --- Blockchain: Application Begins to Take Shape, Industrial Investment Remains in a Fever
1.Definition of Blockchain is Standardized, Development Starts to Deposit
2.The International Community Promotes Financial Innovation of Blockchain, China Combats ICO to Prevent Financial Risk
3.Enterprise-level Application of League Chain Becomes the Mainstream, “Blockchain+” Exploration Progresses ahead
ⅲ Hotspot Issue No.3 --- Sharing Economy: B2C Trend is Increasingly Apparent, Standardized Development is Promoted to Become the Consensus
1.B2C Trend is further Noticed, Bicycle Sharing Leads the World
2.Policy Tone is Inclusive and Prudent, Top-level Design is Constantly Optimized
3.Industrial Problems Arise One after Another, Standardized Development Becomes the Consensus
Ⅲ Outlook into Internet Development in 2018
ⅰ Narrowed Digital Gap and Explosion of Intelligence Technology Inject New Energy into Internet
ⅱ Internet Enterprises Develop towards Delicate Operation, New Retail Leads the Integration Revolution
ⅲ AI Evolves from Perception to Cognition and Eventually Realizes Behavioral Intelligence
ⅳ Data Asset Management will be Reformed along the Trend, Shaping of Regulations, Systems and Standards Need Speed up
ⅴ Blockchain Technology Starts to Develop Rapidly, Discussion on Digital Currency Will be Further Deepened
ⅵ Policy Environment Continues to be Optimized, Development Space of Sharing Economy is Constantly Expanded
Wireless and Mobile
Ⅰ Review on Wireless and Mobile Development in 2017
ⅰ User
1.Popularization Rate among Global Mobile Users Exceeds 100%
2.Chinese Mobile Users Start a New Round of Growth
ⅱ Network
1.The World Starts to Deploy the 5G Layout
2.4G Network Building in China is at the Stage of Steady Development
3.IoT: The World Actively Deploys IoT Service
4.IoT: Chinese NB-IoT Takes a Leading Position
ⅲ Traffic
1.Growth of Mobile Data Traffic in China Hits a Record High
2.Internet Application Business Exerts Greater Influence of Replacement over Mobile Voice
ⅳ Terminal
1.Global Shipment of Mobile Phones Declines amid Steady Development, Share of 4G Stably Increases
2.Mobile Phone Shipment in China Shows Negative Growth, Share of 4G Slightly Climbs
3.Shipment of universal 4G Mobile Phones Rapidly Grows, Processing Capability of LTE Terminals Expands in Two Polars
4.NB-IoT Technology Develops Fast, Application Scenario Features of Terminal Products are Noticeable
Ⅱ Analysis on Wireless and Mobile Hotspot Issues in 2017
ⅰ Standard Research and Setting on 5G Enter the Key Stage
1.3GPP Finalizes Standard Research and Setting of Non-Stand Alone, 5G Comes into the Key Stage for Standard Research and Setting
2.5G Meets the Business Demand of Diversified Scenarios through Flexible System Design
3.Countries Actively Promote 5G Development to Strive for the Commanding Height of the 5G Industry
4.Global Consensus on 5G Spectrum is Preliminarily Reached, China’s 5G Target Band is Basically Identified
5.China Fulfils Stage-2 Test of Research and Development Experiments on 5G Technology and Fully Meets the Requirement of ITU Performance Indicators
6.Work Plan on Stage 3 of 5G Technological Research and Development Experiment
ⅱ Development of Wireless Communication Technology for Internet of Vehicles Drives into the Fast Lane
1.Wireless Communication Technology for Internet of Vehicles Advances, Applications that Support Safety Early-Warning and Efficiency Improvement Become Popular
2. The International Community Need Make Choice on V2X Technical Route
3.Standards and Chips Pave Road for the Industrial Development, LTE-V2X in China Gains Edges
4.LTE-V2X and LTE are Highly Integrated, Which Facilitates Deployment and Development and Will Evolve backwards
5.The International Community Actively Promotes Wireless Communication Technology for Internet of Vehicles to Mature and Be Applied
6.China Proactively Constructs the Development Environment and Plans for Demonstration and Popularization of LTE-V2X Application
ⅲ Space-Ground Integration Becomes the New Hotspot in ICT Sector
1.Chinese Government Pays Great Attention to Building of Space-Ground Integration Information Network
2.Space-Ground Integration is Closely Related to National Strategies and Can Be Widely Applied in Various Sectors, Generating Strong Domestic and Foreign Market Demand
3.Satellite Communication Overseas Enjoys Solid Foundation and Shows the Trend of Development Driven by Both Government Support and Technology
4.China has Made Major Breakthrough in Mobile Satellite and wideband satellite, Time is Right for Building of the Space-Ground Integration System
5.Frequency Orbital Position, Satellite Manufacturing, Wireless Networking and Business Application are Focus of Research on Global Space-Ground Integration
ⅳ IoT Continues to Pick up Speed of Development, NB-IoT Becomes the Hotspot of the Industry
1.LPWAN is the Highlight of IoT Development, Countries and Regions Differ in Choices Made
2.The World Actively Deploys IoT Services and Promotes IoT to Develop into a New Stage
3.NB-IoT Starts to be Commercialized as Driven by Policy and Development
4.“Promotion Method of NB-IoT+ Platform as Led by Local Government” Effectively Drives Startup of IoT Application in a Large Scale in Smart Cities
5.eMTC Will Improve IoT Wireless Network Infrastructure Together with NB-IoT
III. 2018 Outlook for Wireless and Mobile Fields
(I) Subscribers: global mobile subscribers will approach to 8.12 billion in 2018, and the penetration rate of mobile users in China will surpass 100%.
(II) Data traffic: a “price war” among the three major telecom operators will begin in 2018.
(III) Integrated location will be a development orientation for future location applications, and “Internet +” will facilitate the development of the location service industry.
(IV) Demands for broadband wireless private networks are growing and industrial applications display an outburst trend.
(V) Wireless charging application will enter into rapid development.
(VI) Bluetooth 5.0: Mesh will be released, having tremendous future development space.
(VII) 802.11ax/ay key standards will be developed, which is worthy of expectation.
Information Networks
I. Overview of Development in Information Networks Field in 2017
(I) Global information infrastructure has developed towards high speed, full coverage, wide penetration and intelligence at a faster speed.
(II) PON has become the absolute dominator in access technologies; optical access networks have been universal; and the access equipment community focuses on intelligent gateway.
(III) Backbone network capacity continues growing; network architecture has been optimized; and network carrying capability is changing with each passing day.
(IV) Applications for international communications channels present an explosive growth, and local areas have stronger willingness for international network deployment.
(V) Internet companies become the leading force in global expansion of international application infrastructure.
(VI) International access performance is at intermediate level and the backbone network performance has improved significantly.
II. Hotspots Analysis in Information Networks Field in 2017
(I) Edge computing becomes a focus of the industry but consensus hasn’t been reached in technical route.
1. Cloud computing has its own shortcomings and new industries drive edge computing to be popular.
2. Two promotion ways for edge computing: overall deployment and single-point breakthrough.
3. Edge computing becomes a key to stimulate product vitality and interaction at cloud end.
(II) High-speed development of cloud connection reshapes the connection ecosystem.
(III) 5G carrier solution becomes the core driving force for network technology innovation and architecture reform.
1. 5G architecture reform is evident and demand for new carrier solutions is prominent.
2. SDN-based carrier solution will be the trend, supporting the management and control of 5G businesses.
3. Attach equal importance to 5G forward and backward transmission and progress has been achieved in standardization.
4. Slicing carrier solution faces a choice and different views exist in the industry.
III. 2018 Outlook for Information Networks Field
(I) 10Gbit/s PON will be deployed in scale, and the next generation PON standard will be promoted actively.
(II) The 400G router is expected to be fully deployed and the connection among data centers will change the connection architecture.
(III) Scale deployment of IPv6 will enter into a brand new development stage.
(IV) With the rapid spreading of edge computing and AI technologies, global application infrastructure will accelerate integrated development.
(V) AI + information networks will create a number of new opportunities.
ICT Manufacturing
I. Overview of ICT Manufacturing in 2017
(I) Global ICT manufacturing industry has recovered generally, from zero growth in 2016 to 4% growth in 2017.
(II) Bottlenecks and opportunities – hardware restrictions and leap in algorithm.
(III) This AI wave will start a significant industrial cycle.
(IV) General trend of ICT manufacturing core technologies: integration of computing, communications, and storage.
(V) New devices: silicon photonics, high frequency devices, and micron level LED
(VI) New industrial model: AI-oriented vertical integration
(VII) New industrial chain: comprehensive expansion of the ICT industrial system
(VIII) China’s electronic information manufacturing industry made a further increase in revenue.
(IX) Significant breakthrough has been made in China’s basic ICT field and cloud-administration-end has made further development.
II. ICT Manufacturing Hotspots Analysis in 2017
(I) Common tool for world depiction: AI
1. Learning framework and chips are the strategic high ground for the AI industry.
2. The two learning framework camps compete for the eco core.
3. The year 2017 is the beginning year of AI computing development.
4. The three technological routes of data-driven machine learning, priori knowledge-led knowledge project, and brain-like cognitive study, display a trend of integrated development.
(II) Smart entrance for information society: smartphones
1. Global smartphone market is becoming mature and China manufacturing rises rapidly.
2. Fast popularization of full screen drives the innovation and upgrading in multiple links along the terminal industrial chain.
3. The game event between Apple and Qualcomm continues to ferment and pure chip design companies are walking towards sunset.
4. 5G becomes a new force driving the upgrade of terminal chips, and millimeter wave RF front end brings new challenges.
5. Terminal hardware and software has fully started integration with AI, and there’s huge development space for heterogeneous computing.
(III) Next generation terminals are coming into shape: VR and AR
1. The VR industry has crossed the rift, but it is still in the early stage of development.
2. The “five horizontal and two vertical” technical architecture has taken initial shape.
3. VR/AR and AI promote and influence each other.
4. At present, the development gap between China and the international first-class level varies in different fields.
III. 2018 Outlook for ICT Manufacturing
(I) It’s a main field expected to be improved in China in 2018.
(II) General outlook: AI will become the core force for ICT industry ecosystem restructuring and technological reform.
(III) Computing outlook: from general purpose computing to special purpose computing
(IV) AI outlook: the year 2018 will be the beginning year for AI application development.
(V) Smartphone and smart hardware outlook: AI will reshape the development paradigm.
Integration of Informatization and Industrialization
I. Overview of Development in Integration of Informatization and Industrialization in 2017
(I) Strategy and policy
(II) Industrial and technological development
1. Parallel advancement of automation and intelligence, and rapid growth of industries related to integration of informatization and industrialization
2. Smart equipment evolves to a deeper level.
3. Network protocol pattern has accelerated its transformation, and new generation network technology matures rapidly.
4. Edge computing has become an important supplement to the platform and the industry has accelerated its layout arrangement.
5. Industrial software enters into the industrial App era of platform + micro service architecture.
(III) Innovation and cooperation
1. Application innovation in multiple fields
2. International cooperation at different levels
II. Hotspots Analysis in Integration of Informatization and Industrialization in 2017
(I) The industrial Internet has been fully launched, and the platform has become the highlight of development.
1. China has introduced the top-level design for industrial Internet.
2. Industrial Internet industry system basically formed.
3. Platform has become the most active field of industrial Internet innovation.
4. Data-driven industrial Internet applications present differentiated development.
5. With enhanced openness and cooperation, China and the US have become the hottest regions for eco-convergence.
(II) Three years of intelligent manufacturing exploration has achieved initial success and the sector has entered the stage of application promotion and popularization.
1. National level: the promotion system has basically formed and pilot exploration has made outstanding results.
2. Local level: distinctive intelligent manufacturing development paths have been initially formed.
3. Industry level: industrial intelligent transformation models cutting in from different fields.
4. Company level: intelligent transformation-based new models keep emerging.
(III) Accelerated integration of robotics and AI becomes a hotspot for industrial innovation.
1. Intelligent robots become a new battlefield for international industry competition.
2. Industrial robots evolve towards intelligence and human-machine collaboration, and new OS brings greater innovation energy.
3. Intelligent interaction brings intelligent services and service robots become a new engine for industry growth.
4. Development of intelligent robots provides a new path for industry growth.
5. Domestic industrial agglomeration effects have appeared initially but we need to be alert to overheating risks.
III. 2018 Outlook for Integration of Informatization and Industrialization
(I) The industrial Internet will deepen its development, the key of which lies in local areas and applications.
(II) Industrial platforms with industrial knowledge will be the focus of the development of industrial Internet platforms.
(III) The application field of industrial AI will evolve from a single scenario to a comprehensive system.
(IV) Digital twin will become a strategic technology affecting future industrial digitalization.
(V) Industrial data space is expected to become the next focal point in the world to promote data opening and trading.
Network and Information Security
I. General Situations Analysis of Network and Information Security in 2017
(I) Severe security threat situation
1. The weapon-oriented attack tools have greatly aggravated the cyberspace risk index.
2. Mobile payment develops fast and app security risks continue to increase.
3. NB-IoT has been deployed at a faster speed and security threats appeared preliminarily.
(II) Increasingly improved security protection capability
1. Domestic and international cyber security legislation advances further in depth.
2. Network information security emergency support presents a trend of system-oriented development.
(III) Steady development of the security industry
1. The global security industry has grown steadily with highly active technical innovation and iteration.
2. China’s security industry has entered a golden period of development, and regional clustering effects have emerged.
II. Hotspots Analysis in Network and Information Security in 2017
(I) New hyper-convergence attack means have appeared, and cyber security defense ideas need to be changed.
1. New hyper-convergence attack means have greatly affect the deep zone of cyber security.
2. Threats spread faster, wider and deeper, but security defense measures respond weakly.
3. New characteristics of cyber attacks – weapon-oriented, integrated and intelligent.
4. Traditional “wood barrel” safety response ideas need to be changed.
(II) Cyber crimes and terrorism are rampant, and it is imperative to build a global international crackdown chain.
1. The scale and level of cyber crimes have entered the era of globalization 2.0.
2. Decades of cyber crime situations have undergone important “changes”.
3. The double-edged sword of technological innovation makes cyber anti-terrorism and crime crackdown face a more serious situation.
4. Building a global crackdown chain against cyber crimes and terrorism has become an international consensus.
(III) Industrial Internet has accelerated security deployment in general and building a secure ecosystem becomes a key for industrial development.
1. Industrial Internet security threats face a development trend of longitudinal extension and horizontal penetration.
2. Industrial Internet has accelerated security deployment to build a secure ecosystem.
3. Lead with standards to establish implementation targets for industrial Internet security.
4. Make technological breakthroughs to consolidate the inherent security capabilities of the industrial Internet.
5. Adopt a platform strategy to build a security service structure for industrial Internet.
III. Estimation of Network and Information Security Development Trend in 2018
(I) Technological innovation will focus on reversing the offensive and defensive posture and create a new paradigm for cyber security.
(II) 5G application enters into countdown, and cyber security technology research and development tests will be advanced simultaneously.
(III) Vehicle networking progress will be faster, and security incidents will enter into a frequent happening period.
(IV) Data security supervision will improve its weak links and enter into a standard management stage.
(V) With the intensified policy guidance, the shortage of cyber security talents is expected to gradually change.
Laws and Regulation
I. Overview of Development in Laws and Regulation Field in 2017
(I) Network security legislation and law enforcement have been strengthened.
1. Cyber Security Law supporting system construction and network information security legislation move forward steadily.
2. Multiple ministries have intensified the enforcement of the Cyber Security Law.
3. International cyber security legislation continues to advance and data rules become the focus.
(II) Implement the requirements of “decentralization, control and service optimization” and improve the regulation system.
(III) Adapt to the new normal and new technology trends, and intellectual property legislation protection include new subjects.
(IV) Standard patent disputes are frequent and all parties compete for the right to speak.
II. Hotspots Analysis in Laws and Regulation Field in 2017
(I) Data controversies keep emerging with highlighted issues.
1. Scope of user information and users’ data rights
2. Definition and scope of user authorization
3. Whether mass capture of open data constitutes unfair competition
(II) Make innovation of regulation ideas, and the credit management framework has been developed initially.
1. The roles of industrial authorities and industrial associations are different in the building of the social credit system.
2. The credit management mechanism for the ICT industry officially launched.
3. The ministerial and provincial authorities laid a good foundation for the implementation of the credit management mechanism.
4. Enterprise-led credit management has been deeply applied in a wider range.
5. The credit management mechanism of the ICT industry is mainly applied in four aspects.
(III) Countries have adjusted their laws and policies in response to the digital economy era.
1. The US launched Section 301 investigation against China.
2. The US and the EU made adjustments in laws and policies in response to digital economy development.
3. Digital economic development-oriented new trend of international rules.
III. 2018 Outlook for Laws and Regulation Field
(I) Fully promote a new situation for legal construction in cyber security.
(II) Build a future-oriented digital economic system.
(III) Industrial credit management mechanism will extend to a deeper and wider scope.
(IV) Intellectual property-related legislation and judicial process will accelerate.